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What Your Discard Is Worth to the Crib

Half of every cribbage discard decision is about the two cards you throw away — and unlike the hand you keep, you never find out what they were worth. So we computed it: every two-card throw, valued across all 58,800 cribs it could end up in.

The headline numbers

The spread is the number that matters. 5.58 points separates the most generous throw from the most miserly one — and since you discard on every single deal, choosing well on the throw is worth more over a game than almost anything you do during the play.

It also shows why the same two cards are a good throw and a bad throw depending on nothing but who dealt. Every number below is a gift when the crib is yours and a donation when it is not.

The fifteen best throws

Throw these to your own crib. Never to your opponent's.

Expected crib points. A dash means the two cards are the same rank, so they cannot be suited.

The twelve safest throws

Throw these to your opponent's crib. They are the cards that combine with least, and the difference between the safest throw and a careless one is around two points.

The pattern is consistent: a high card and a ten-value card, far enough apart that they cannot make a run and cannot make fifteen with each other. 10-K is the single safest throw in cribbage at 3.41, followed by 9-K and 9-Q. Note that none of them is cheap — even the safest throw hands your opponent nearly three and a half points, because their own two cards and the starter are still doing work. There is no such thing as a free discard.

The 5 is worth two points on its own

Split the 91 throws by whether they contain a 5 and the effect is stark:

A 5 in the crib is worth about 2.15 points over an average non-5 throw, and every one of the top six throws contains one. The reason is the same as everywhere else in cribbage: sixteen cards in the deck are worth ten, so a 5 has sixteen partners waiting to make fifteen — more than any other rank can claim.

This is the arithmetic behind the oldest rule of thumb in the game. "Never throw a 5 to your opponent's crib" is not superstition; it costs you slightly over two points every time you break it. Even 5-K, the weakest 5 throw on the list, is worth 6.81 — comfortably above the 4.84 average.

Throwing suited is worth almost nothing

Players routinely throw two cards of the same suit to their own crib hoping for a flush. Across all 78 throws where it is possible, being suited is worth an average of +0.04 points, and at most +0.042.

That is four hundredths of a point — effectively nothing, and far below the threshold at which it should influence any decision. The reason is the crib's stricter flush rule: a four-card flush scores nothing in the crib, so your two suited cards only pay off when your opponent throws two more of the same suit and the starter matches as well. That is a long way from likely.

Using this at the table

You will not memorise 91 numbers. Four rules carry nearly all of the value:

• Never throw a 5 to their crib. Worth 2.15 points, every time, and it is the most reliable single rule in the game.
• Throw a ten-card with a high card to their crib. 10-K, 9-K, 9-Q and 8-K are all near the floor. They cannot make fifteen with each other and cannot run.
• Throw touching or fifteen-making pairs to your own. 5-5, 5-6, 2-3, 7-8, 6-6 — cards that already combine, or that one cut turns into a run.
• Ignore suits entirely. Four hundredths of a point.

And remember this is only half the decision. The other half is what the four cards you keep are worth, which we computed separately in the best hands to keep. The right throw is the one that maximises hand plus crib when the crib is yours, and hand minus crib when it is not — which is why the same six cards produce two different answers depending on who dealt. The judgement involved is the discard guide.

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